Federal researchers followed the post-secondary outcomes of 23,000 students for 12 years.
Only 60 percent of students who enrolled in college earned a degree or credential within eight years of graduating high school.
That’s one of the biggest takeaways from a new report the National Center for Education Statistics released Monday that analyzed the enrollment, completion and financial aid outcomes of students.
The researchers tracked the postsecondary educational outcomes of roughly 23,000 students beginning in 2009 when they were freshman in high school through 2021, when the cohort was eight years out from graduating high school.
Those 23,000 students represented the demographics of the millions of ninth graders across the country who were enrolled in public and private schools in 2009.
“A big goal of the study is to understand their educational and life outcomes,” Elise Christopher, director of the study, said. “We wanted to know how many had ended up enrolling in college and how many had completed and what kinds of degrees they’d received.”
As of March 29, 40 percent fewer high school students had completed the Free Application for Federal Student Aid than they did by that date in 2023, according to newly released data from the U.S. Education Department, a massive drop caused largely by the new form’s disastrous rollout.
The new federal data is the first to separate completion rates as a subset of submission rates, according to the National College Attainment Network. FAFSA submissions, which include forms that still need corrections, are down 27 percent year-over-year.
The 13 percent difference between completions and submissions implies a larger-than-usual number of form errors this year, which the Education Department said cannot be corrected until processing is completed in mid-April. That could set back colleges’ already-delayed timelines on sending financial aid packages, and give students even less leeway to decide which college to attend based on accurate cost information.
A perfect storm of circumstances has led to a significant rise in fake students applying to college and enrolling in classes to take advantage of the higher education system. Ghost students, also called “Pell runners,” have caused particular havoc in California, upsetting the institutional security measures and often stealing millions of dollars in financial aid.
In July 2021, the California Community Colleges Chancellor’s Office discovered that about 20% of the state’s college applications were scams. Of the 2.3 million who had applied, 460,000 were found to be fake. Pierce College in Los Angeles recently gutted nearly 3,000 “students” after discovering that 36% of its enrollment consisted of phony accounts.
At the most nefarious level, scammers use the identity of other unsuspecting persons to collect financial aid money. In March, three California women were indicted for obtaining nearly $1 million in federal student loans. The San Diego Community College District is still reeling after discovering it was paying out over $100,000 in fraudulent claims in 2021, Faculty Focusreports.
Colleges and universities say they need more honesty and transparency from the department to rebuild their trust in the federal financial aid system.
Hard-pressed college administrators got some welcome news last Thursday, when the Education Department announced an abrupt about-face. A few days after saying that it would not reprocess most of the financial aid applications that have been marred by a tax issue—around 20 percent of the millions of applications—the department announced that it would, in fact, do so. It was just one more turn on the roller coaster of mistakes and missed deadlines that have marred the rollout of the new Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA).
“I wake up every morning cringing about what update we’re gonna get today,” said Eric Nichols, vice president for enrollment management at Loyola University Maryland.
The FAFSA launch, plagued by a series of delays and technical issues, has shaken confidence in the department among college administrators, students and families. At this time of the year, colleges are typically finalizing their incoming classes ahead of the May 1 commitment deadline. But many have pushed off that deadline and are only now sending financial aid awards to students—a process that usually begins in January. At the same time, applications among high school seniors are down, sparking concerns about a potential enrollment drop across the country.